Somebody had also asked on Quora if the H-1B Program would end as a result of Trump having been elected….
Let’s be sensible here. Here’s what we know for a fact:
President-Elect Trump will be sworn into office on January 20, 2017. How the H-1B program will be impacted thereafter will largely be based on what changes he plans on executing:
As an aside, our government has checks and balances. The above analysis only focuses on legal possibility. There are many other factors such as business lobbying groups. If the law wasn’t followed or if there are other legal issues, you’ll bet lawsuits will be filed to prevent the law from being implemented.
You can read my latest blog posting on immigration issues here.
There is a mass hysteria prevailing in the international students’ community in view of the recent Executive Order on Temporary Immigration Ban on seven countries and proposed changes to the H-1B bill. Let’s understand how these developments can impact Indian students aspiring for higher education in the US.
Firstly, while the EO curtails immigration from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen, the courts have overruled this EO order recently. Similarly, the refugee clause will not apply to Indians as well. Indian students going on F1 Visas, therefore, need not worry.
Moving onto the topic that has everyone on the edge of their seats (more so, than the NaMo demonetization effect) – the legislation on H1B (employment) visas. Before we discuss the impact, let’s understand what the H1B visa does – it allows you to work “post” the OPT (Optional Practical Training) period. After the completion of the college program, a student is entitled to work on OPT for up to 12 months for non-STEM and up to 36 months for STEM courses. Thus, a STEM student can work up to THREE years (irrespective of H1B application), which usually is more than enough to not just recover the fees and the loan but also set-up a strong foundation to build upon later.
Thinking from a recruiter’s point of view, if there is uncertainty in the regulations, then the company would be more keen on recruiting interns and people on OPT than on H1B. The OPT does not have a minimum salary requirement as compared to H-1Bs under the proposed regulations. This in turn will increase the opportunities for fresh graduates.
Lets try to decipher a few hidden clauses of the new legislation. Now, the proposed legislation on the floor in the Congress for H1B eligibility prioritizes market-based allocation of H-1B visas for institutions willing to pay 2x of the wage calculated by a survey. Estimates are that the annual salary will amount to a minimum of approximately US$130,000 per year. While the legislation is yet to be finalized, here is why even these rules should not be a cause of grave concern for Indian students:
a) Various such proposals have been floated previously unsuccessfully.
b) The current visa requirements mandate Indian students to prove their indisposition towards migrating to the US permanently. However, the new H1B leaves scope for a “dual intent” which means F1 visas may not be denied on the basis of the student’s intention to migrate. The transition from F1 to H1B in that sense should be lot smoother now.
c) The new H1B rules shall eliminate the ‘country based’ allocation earlier available to ‘Chile’ and ‘Singapore’ thereby creating more opportunity for Indian students.
d) The salary cap of $130,000 on H1B will be applicable to only those companies who have more than 15% employees on H1B visa – this will refrain a few particular companies (read – the beneficiaries of outsourcing policies) to exhaust the quota via the H1B lottery system and open up more opportunities for other companies and startups.
e) The following tweet by Trump talks of his intention to create more new businesses, which translates to more jobs. The new H1B will cut down ‘hoarding’ of talent by a few companies and help small businesses in hiring talented individuals.
Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump
The American dream is back. We’re going to create an environment for small business like we haven’t had in many, many decades!
f) The effect of the proposal will predominantly be felt by those companies who hire Indians on H1B and L1 visas for US-based projects without paying them the salaries that an American University-trained graduate (India-based or otherwise) is in a position to command. The effect thus, will be felt more on a corporate level and not at an employee level, and the Indian students aspiring for American education should not be too concerned with this move by President Trump.
g) The OPT enables the student to work for a total of three years in the US after completion of their Masters. Many of the students who complete their Masters get a starting salary in the range of US$85,000 to US$95,000. Having gained three years of work experience, it is natural for these students to expect the salary in range of eligibility criteria decided for obtaining H1B visa. If the student has successfully proven his mettle to his employer, the employer will not hesitate in rewarding the employee with compensation that is above the minimum amount required to obtain the visa.
g) Since the proposed H1B bill aims at leveling the playing field and curbing companies to outsource jobs, it is unlikely that these vacant positions will be filled by the existing workforce. This will create more opportunities for Indian students available under OPT option.
i) If the reports are to be believed, U.S. colleges will end up losing close $700 million of their annual revenue if Indians decide to explore other avenues. This move can significantly impact US’s undisputed standing as the top study destination. University Presidents are aware of these dire implications and are trying their best to chalk out ways to attract students to the US shores, and in a bid to do so they are likely to ease out the fiercely competitive admission process. The US is known for its inclusive education system and their commitment to diversity. With the ban on seven Muslim countries, chances of Indian applicants being accepted is likely to move up a notch. In fact, we have seen better results so far this year than the previous year in terms of the admits the students have got at Collegepond.
Many brilliant innovations in the US are driven by immigrants. It is a startling fact that all the six American who bagged the Nobel prize in 2016 were immigrants! A large number of international students study STEM courses and contribute significantly to research and economic growth of the nation. Statistics indicate that there is a scarcity of U.S born graduates prepared to work in STEM fields. The universities would try their best to give out admits to deserving international students to ensure their higher-education system attracts the best and brightest from across the globe.
j) For the convocation ceremony at the time of graduation, more often than not, the parents end up visiting United States. The cascading impact of Indians not going to US Universities will affect the tourism industry in excess of US$ 1.0 billion as Indians are amongst the highest spenders as tourists in USA.
From losing revenues in the form of visa fees, University tuition, tourism, etc – the amount will be drastic for the country to suddenly sustain. Several multinational companies have already begun lobbying against the 2x eligibility criteria of $130K, and as per Mr. Vikas Swaroop, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, the concerns about H1B and L1 visas have been conveyed to the US at the highest levels. With President Trump and PM Modi expected to chalk out a long-term strategy of incremental Indo-US collaboration on multiple fronts, expect the deal only to get increasingly favorable for Indians going forward. Politically and diplomatically, it makes a lot of sense for President Trump to work towards creating a foreign policy with India which is mutually beneficial for the two countries.
Thus, it is important to scavenge at the opportunities during uncertain times rather than dwell too much on the negativities that have been prorogated by media without even the laws and proposals being legislated.
Please note that this is an interpretation of the current proposals and may require modification with the future developments.
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I believe this is one of the areas Trump will be forced to compromise on with his previous statements.
As Ann Cun stated, he mentioned H1 B as a bad program. This was because he was speaking from the perspective of the average American worker. To those people, H1 B represents the country’s best jobs going to non-citizens for the convenience of wealthy corporations.
I’d argue that his position will change drastically, if not already for two reasons.
That said, and returning to Trump and the current status of H1 B. It would seem he is changing his tune to deal with current realities. While on the face, H1 B does exactly what many Americans fear, giving great American jobs to non-Americans, it opens up the gates to many more jobs and a stronger, healthier economy overall. I honestly don’t think he could not realize this, but I also think that not acknowledging the concerns of his voter base wouldn’t have put him in office. You can probably see this in his steering away from his strong stance from the beginning of the year to get rid of the H1 B to a stance today that reads much more like a person who accepts the need, but will likely try to limit its growth or reduce the use in the future. While a ban on it was called for back in March, likely, that will never see the light of day. What is far more likely is that we will see something like a lower cap on the number of H1 B visas given out, or even a tax on companies in the US who use H1 B to lower the demand for them. Of course, he will have to back this up by rebuilding the United States education system if he wants an America that doesn’t need expert immigrant labor. This means that those who have them are probably fine, but those who want one into the United States soon may see that door closing and perhaps after a second Presidency, the door may be closed for good.
Thanks for reading!
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I highly suspect that there will be much of changes to the H1-B visa program. There will be some political checkboxes and actions that the current administration will be required to check and we saw that in Trump’s executive order.
However, even reading the executive order carefully, I don’t see solutions to the problem but just identification of the problems themselves.
I have worked in both as a “blue-collar H1B” and more recently for the past 7 years as a “white-collar H1B” and know most of the suggested solutions that have been suggested by people.
Let us see the mostly suggested solutions and why they might not work the way one might think:
Let’s increase the minimum wages to 100K:
This is DOA. Essentially what you are now forcing companies to do is to move all of those jobs between 60K - 100K offshore (which are very pessimistically close to half a million workers and growing). One of the companies that I worked for had close to 400 workers on H1B who were paid 60K per year. There are thousands of companies like this who needs the blue-collar H1B worker to run shop. So keep in mind that H1B’s pay the exact same taxes (including Social Security and Medicare) that American citizens do. Since most of the workers in this class of salary are Indian outsourcing companies, most of which are on 10–20 year green card backlogs, the US will miss out on all those taxes and contributions to the welfare plans.
Of course companies will and hire token Americans to please the administration, but at the end of the day, the problem is still in the large. All those jobs will not come back to America, ever! Imports cannot be detected nor taxed on virtual products like software either, for obvious reasons.
Let’s hire only students who have completed their masters in the United States:
Another DOA solution. First of all, the thinking that the U.S. has the best colleges is just B.S. There are many colleges in India, Russia and China that generate engineers that rival those that come out of most U.S. colleges. Second of all, you will see a huge number of Indian and Chinese engineers flock to studying M.S. courses in the U.S. if such a rule passes. There will also be a lot of colleges that will open up to serve the excessive demand just to make a buck and you can imagine the quality of education as a result of a mission like that. Once this happens, we are again back to square 1. Indian IT hires these M.S. graduates at 60K, American workers again out of work.
Let’s cancel the H1B program:
I wont say anything here. Try doing this and one will see why this was such a bad idea. :)
Let’s exclude people from third world countries from immigrating to the U.S.A.
I have a feeling that, this is what most H1B critics want so bad to happen. From going against the U.S. constitution to not being able to hire the best, there are so many problems here. The main problem that I will see for this move is that companies will open and expand offices in countries that suit their cost -> value model and start hiring there. No taxes for U.S.A. and no jobs for Americans either. You will also see a lot of trade wars as a result of doing this and now all your commodity items like iPhone, clothes, furniture etc have gone up because they are manufactured in house.
So, you look at this and say, “Well how do we solve this problem?”
Let me give a few options and we will go from there. The solutions are not intuitive or straightforward.
Remove all green card backlogs immediately and give all H1B workers equal rights to citizens - This puts both the immigrant and the American worker in a level playing field. Companies that were thriving with an immobile workforce (and as a direct consequence, preferring immigrants with decades long green card backlogs will no longer be able to discriminate), immigrants will be able to move freely between companies just as citizens. Do note, that competition still exists. As American workers one still has to compete against a global workforce. However, now the field is level and the most competent player wins. Today, that is not the case, the odds are stacked against Americans (especially at the lower levels) from getting a job. Keep in mind, that there is a lot of very powerful forces that do not want this to happen all the way from big tech companies, to lawyers, to consulting firms to forces that are deep inside DHS and USCIS. Don’t believe me? Take a look at this video where President Obama gave an executive order for equal rights for H1B holders on the path to green card. The USCIS ombudsman is insistent upon not giving the freedom because employers won’t hire H1Bs anymore.
That is where the solution lies!
Provide Americans who haven’t kept up with the industry an expat program to the country of their choice - One of the problems with IT is people fail to keep themselves up to date. In software, after a few years of procrastination, getting into the workforce is incredibly tough. Offer Americans that are unemployed for long periods of time and are taking unemployment (not financially independent. or close to retirement) a program to move out of the country. This helps keep the population lean, mean and productive. Training Americans or using the H1B program to train Americans on up to date skills is not going to solve the problem. Americans must do those trainings out of their own accord and not depend on the government to do it for them (Get out of your ass and go out there already, kind of thing).
End the H1B program and offer a points based green card program. Note, I said green card. Not visa. Give a green card based on points that is not tied with any employer. If the worker did not work for atleast 4 out of 5 years, cancel the green card and send him back home. Again, this removes exploitation and gives a level playing field to American workers. Restrict it based on quota.
The last 3 points are the only ways to fix this problem. Also, the people who say companies are “abusing the system”, don’t know what they are talking about. If you don’t want companies to abuse the system, change the law! Don’t complain when companies are perfectly following current law!
My own feeling is that Student visas will not be affected.
America benefits from the presence of overseas students, particularly from India and China.
They have some of the finest educational institutions in the world which deserve the best students in the world.
Many American students may not have the merit or aptitude or desire to enter these institutions. After passing from high school, (which is free) many don’t consider opting for college education. Many can’t afford them. Many don’t even want them. They do quite well and make enough money doing jobs that do not need a university degree.
The overseas students come with much better credentials. These American Universities now get the cream of the student community from all over the world who also pay handsomely for their education and bring in revenue that these Universities need.
If overseas students are barred, the American Universities may not have enough students to fill all the seats unless they sharply lower their entry standards and reduce the fees. Besides they will lose a lot a money that overseas students bring. So they need overseas students. This is my guess. I am willing to be corrected if I am wrong.
But once you graduate or get your Master’s degree from USA, it is an entirely different matter. Americans don’t want any competition for jobs from the overseas population. Trump may reduce the cap on H1B visas from the current 65000 to something lower. They will be very very choosy indeed in granting visas. Only the Software/CS/IT guys may be given visas and only if sponsored by the top companies. That’s the area where they need us, the overseas guys.
I see a bleak future for thousands of hopefuls from India and China. I can only hope my pessimism is misplaced.
GV
So obviously it is no secret that President-Elect Trump looks unfavorably upon immigration. That being said it really remains to be seen what types of changes his presidency might actually bring to the H-1B visa and immigration as a whole because, as you probably know, Mr. Trump has yet to lock himself down in terms of policy.
At the outset it may seem like there are two basic changes that could be made which would affect the process in similar ways. First, the requirements to obtain an H-1B could be changed to encompass a different purpose and thus a different category of people would be eligible. To me, this does not seem very likely. The H-1B is for specialty workers in specialty occupations so the category is already limited, and the purpose is an important one.
A more likely change would be to restrict the number of H-1B visas that are given out per year (65k in 2017 for regular H-1B). There is already a cap on the number given out per year and that cap could decrease. The effect here would be obvious, an H-1B would be much harder to obtain.
Again, this is all speculation because we have really yet to see exactly what President-Elect Trump plans to do. However, you should remember that the H-1B program serves a valuable purpose and without American companies would have trouble finding enough specialty workers. For that reason, the H-1B program is not likely to be “done away with” nor is it likely to be significantly diminished. If any changes are made, my guess is that they will be minor in application even if they are publicized as strict or harsh.
The bottom-line is that there will still be H-1B visas available for those who qualify. If you are looking to apply for a visa or if you have more questions, I invite you to visit LawTrades. Our attorneys have experience with the visa process and the initial consultation is free!
I worked in Silicon Valley for Linkedin on an H1B for the past 6 years. And since this is an entirely hypothetical question (no one really knows the answer) let me try and answer it from the Silicon Valley perspective.
This is clearly an important topic in Silicon Valley and from speaking to friends the consensus seems to be the following.
And a lot believe that if this goes though it will be a game changer for America. A lot of these changes will bring H1B back in line with its original intentions where were subverted over the years by bad actors. Do people believe this will pass, almost no one.
Absolutely no difference from the past administration of President Obama.
I am on a H-1B visa.
Trump has never been anti-H1B, but the recent incidents related to banning refugees from a handful of countries and his recent executive orders suggests that there is clear unrest among the current H-1B visa holders. And also the prospective ones.
There is one thing clear that, he can't just abolish the H-1B program as it is not directly under his jurisdiction and the fact that congress needs to approve and make it a law or amend the existing law. H-1B’s are a source of job creation in US.
The abolishment of a visa program which employs people from all over the globe in his own companies makes very little sense. But, what he can do is to convince the congress to pass a law in the favor of increasing wages of H-1B workers from the minimum stipulated amount of $60,000 per year to $100,000 per year so that employers are forced to only offer jobs to the US citizens. However, it is so illogical if it's enacted. There are so many jobs in IT or other industries that don't require somebody to have over 10 years of experience in that field to be able to deserve at least $100k salary. And, the H-1B visa holders are only given jobs when a labor petition is filed for a worker which means that the skill set desired is not available in the current market for which the H-1B visa holder fills the need.
One more thing, 99% employers need a worker to not just save money by employing them at low salary but also to increase their business growth by hiring great skilled people. These companies can't just hire a US citizen because all they have is a US citizenship and not the desired skills and hence those position will remain unfilled. That void created by such a situation already exists which means the US companies are unable to find enough talent inside the country and need more H-1B’s from other countries to fill these jobs. So, there is a deficit of right talent and these companies want the H-1B’s visas to be increased from 85,000 per year to a bigger number.
Don't worry, H-1B is not going anywhere, at least not for the right talent. However, I do support the axing of H-1B availability for bodyshoppers who subcontracts jobs and don't really add any value but are earning in millions at this current juncture.
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