What do you think will happen to Bitcoin's price after the halving in mid-2016?

I look at it from a supply and demand perspective.

If the demand continues to increase between now and then and bitcoiners continue to make apps, tools and utilities that increase Bitcoin's functionality and usability, then I predict that we will see an increase in the price due to an increased demand and a reduction in the supply.

If demand diminishes between now and then, we will likely see the price stay about the same or maybe even some minor price slides but since more investment capital is being invested into the Bitcoin infrastructure all the time, I don't see demand slowing down over the next year.

It will also be very interesting to see what happens with OpenBazaar and 21 - The 21 Bitcoin Computer. OpenBazaar will enable much more widespread trade with Bitcoin (this removes supply from the market while also increasing demand) and 21 is creating computers that conduct business with other computers using Bitcoin. Now instead of convincing your friends to use Bitcoin you can tell a little computer to use it to make small transactions online and when an entire economy of robots starts using it everyday, I predict the price will stabilize in an upward direction.

Only time will tell. I'm acquiring as much as possible until then.

Out of 21 million coins that are ever going to exist, approximately 15 million are already in circulation and there is a supply cap which halves every four years - 2016 is a leap year for Bitcoin too! This year the bitcoin mining reward is scheduled to halve from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block, second time since its launch.

Generally when market is going to witness some sort of scarcity or controlled supply in a promising concept – like bitcoin, the demand starts rising with positive sentiments. That said, markets start making speculative moves and this pushes its price upwards thus building pressure to grab the opportunity and get share in the revolutionary future.

Now that during previous halving in November 2012, from 50 to 25 BTC, when bitcoin didn’t gain much popularity, the price of one bitcoin was worth around $5 in April. See the chart below:

Image Source: CoinDesk

The price started increasing exponentially touching $13 in mid August and on the day of halving i.e. 28 November it stood at $12.35.

This means roughly before six months of halving, market reacted positively in anticipation and gained confidence in bitcoin which resulted in 150% returns!

More surprising fact is that 7 weeks post halving of the block, sure there might be many more factors that may have impacted the price rise and halving being one of them, the price of one bitcoin was $130 i.e. 950% returns :)

We’re ready for the joy ride! Read Zebpay's full report on factors that will drive bitcoin's price in 2016.

It's an interesting question, because we only have one precedent to study and it was in 2012. At that time bitcoin had very little attention from the mainstream media, and there were fewer (and far less sophisticated) trading platforms available for professional speculators. As our charts at Kaiko show, one bitcoin was worth just $12.10 at the time.

Things soon changed. The effect of halving took a while to filter through all levels of the bitcoin world, but the price rose steadily from there and it's never returned to anywhere near that pre-halving level. 

You could also say there's a bigger 'psychological difference' this time: 50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

No matter what happens, lots of people will be watching the charts very closely! You can read in this article all the explanations of what 'bitcoin reward halving' is, what current coin supply looks like, and thoughts on price effect.

The 2nd Bitcoin halving will occur on July 11~12, 2016, or about 73 days from now. You are asking for the prediction of a short term commodities market. You’ll have better guidance with a magic eight ball. Whomever answers correctly, has met with dumb luck.

Since fears and factors typically lead markets (especially for an event that is man made and scheduled), the effect of halving is very likely already baked into the Bitcoin exchange value.

But sarcasm aside, I can add some perspective:

1. A great many people seem to think that the Bitcoin value will rise, because they figure that a slower payout reflects a more precious commodity.
2. Others feel that Bitcoin will fall, because miners will lose interest in continued processing. (Even before the halving, mining is barely profitable, and only for those with big investments and low cost electricity). They figure that this will lead to validation delays, increased political jockeying, increased concentration among pools. And that these things will potentially demoralize the entire ecosystem.
3. Finally, some pundits—like me—feel that leading investors have long-ago factored the total number of Bitcoin into their buy and hold decisions. We all know that there will ultimately be 21M coins, less a small leakage from loss. The fact that 5.5 million have not yet been uncovered is immaterial to ‘smart money’, because the demand of circulation is still in its infancy.

Although #3 reflects my personal view, this does not mean that the exchange value of Bitcoin will stay at today’s figure (about $455/BTC). Not at all! The long term upside is spectacular, but the halving is not a major contributor to the long term.

Ellery Davies is a frequent contributor to Quora. He is also co-chair of Cryptocurrency Standards Association and editor at A Wild Duck.

As far as i see it there are three possible outcomes for the price.

1) the hashing power will go down (so certain miners will unplug their equipment) this will lead to a stable supply of bitcoin for the remaining mininers and the price will stay the same.

2) price moves up to make up for the loss in bitcoins

3) fees become a bigger part of the ecosystem and the miners make up the lost revenue from fees, price stays the same

I think it will be a combination of the 3 and the price will move up a bit, more transactions are going to require a small fee and even more of the miners that are doing it as a hobby will stop.