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I estimate approximately 400,000 Iraqi civilians died under Saddam mostly Kurds killed in the 1980s Anfal campaign, the 1991 uprisings during the refugees crisis, and deportation and torture during the 1980 persecution of Feyli Kurds. Under Bush 170,000 civilians perished during the Iraq War. 1/2 million died during the Sanctions against Iraq which has been blamed on both Saddam and Iraq depending on which side you ask. At least by my estimate, Saddam killed more whatever that’s worth.

Saddam deaths estimate - 4 0 0 , 0 0 0

*Confirmed Iraqi civilian Victims 91,501 to 390,999

*Non Iraqi civilian Victims 12,000 to 101,000

  • 11,000 to 100,000 Iranian civilians were killed during Saddam’s war against Iran.
  • 1,000 Kuwaiti civilians were killed during Saddam’s Invasion.

*Speculative Figures 45,600 to 468,400

  • 500 to 1,000 Kurdish refugees perished per days from disease along Turkey’s border after the 1991 uprising, in addition “hundreds (100–900?) The time span of this is March to Early April a 36 day period meaning the death toll of this event ranges from 21,600 to 68,400.
  • During Saddam’s Draining of the Mesopotamian Marshes, villages in the marshes were attacked and burnt down and there were reports of the water being deliberately poisoned. The number that perished during this event is unknown numbered about half a million in the 1950s, have dwindled to as few as 20,000 in Iraq, noting 80,000 to 120,000 fled to refugee camps in Iran. Another source sais 125,000 to 150,000 Ma’dan remain Iraq meaning the number of “disappeared” peoples ranges anywhere from 230,000 to 400,000. It may be a stretched to say all of these disappeared peoples were killed or starved, so perhaps a figure of deaths can be found by comparing the displacement to similar actions by the regime, during the 1980 genocide of Feyli Kurds 300,000 Kurds were deported to Iran and in the process the regime tortured and starved 25,000 of them supposing an 8.3% death rate. As mentioned before I estimated about 21,600 to 68,400 Kurds perished during the refugee crisis in which 1,030,000 fled suggesting a death rate of 2.1% to 6.6% from these we can get a reasonable average of about 5 to 6 percent give or take. I’ll use 5% just for the sake of simplicity. applying this to 480,000 displaced during the campaign gives a very rough estimate of about 24,000 deaths.
  • A problem with using these events is that they were concurrent with the 1991 uprising and I don’t know if the figures for uprising take these events into account when calculating said figures

Overall at least 91,501 Iraqi civilians deaths can be attributed to Saddam, which can be raised to 390,999 if you use the higher estimates for said events which can then be raised even further to anywhere from 436,599 to to 859,399 with special notice that the higher figure is pretty sketchy. then if you wish to include non-Iraqi victims you can raise Saddam’s total victims to 448,599 and an absolute maximum of 960,399 close to 1 million, though this figure relies almost entirely on one fairly sketchy event. If we synthesize these estimates into a geometric mean we get a figure of 423, 673.70566. This figure is close to the minimum estimate from using the speculative death events. It’s also close to the maximum number of casualties from confirmed massacres (390,999) so I’ll round that figure up and the mean and minimum speculative down to an even 400,000 estimate for the number of victims of Saddam’s repression.


Bush deaths estimate - 1 7 0 , 0 0 0

Finding the deaths for Bush and the U.S. is much simpler affair. Civilian Casualties of the Iraq War are estimated at 155,923 – 174,355, though state these are believed by some to be under-counts. I’ll round it out to a simple 170,000.