Will Tim Cook be out of Apple by the end of 2012, as predicted by Cringely?
What are the arguments for and against?
1 Answer
No. Tim Cook will remain Apple's CEO and Chairman for the next 5 years, and possibly for the next 10+.
Tim Cook has basically been running Apple since the liver transplant in 2008. He's done a great job. There is no reason to think this will change.
The "internal strife leads to Apple's downfall" prediction is unlikely to come true -- Apple's board is smart enough to empower Tim Cook to make whatever decisions he needs to, and
Tim Cook remaining as CEO is helped by Sir Jony Ive, another likely candidate, being much more interested in design than administration. Internally, the other options are Bob Mansfield and Scott Forstall. Scott Forstall is being given the most hype as "potential CEO in waiting", but a lot of this is from the book Inside Apple, a pretty unreliable source. (I'm sure any of the Apple top leadership could adequately perform as CEO, but there's no realistic scenario where Cook and/or the board would support the change.)
So, he's not going to be pushed out internally.
The only way I could see Tim Cook leaving on his own initiation would be if he suffered a medical or other disability. Similarly, Steve Jobs would have remained Apple's Chairman and CEO until he became medically incapacitated. I mean, what are you going to do which is better than running Apple?
So, he's not going to leave on his own.
Given that Apple is the world's highest market capitalization company, it's unlikely anyone will buy Apple. Even if they did, it would be unlikely the new owners would replace the leadership.
I'm going to assume this was just shameless page view pandering on Cringely's part. Plus, in the 1:1000 chance he's right (due to a bus, or due to mass psychosis at a board meeting), he'd be remembered as the guy who predicted it; otherwise, it will be forgotten like a bunch of other bad predictions he's made.
Tim Cook has basically been running Apple since the liver transplant in 2008. He's done a great job. There is no reason to think this will change.
The "internal strife leads to Apple's downfall" prediction is unlikely to come true -- Apple's board is smart enough to empower Tim Cook to make whatever decisions he needs to, and
Tim Cook remaining as CEO is helped by Sir Jony Ive, another likely candidate, being much more interested in design than administration. Internally, the other options are Bob Mansfield and Scott Forstall. Scott Forstall is being given the most hype as "potential CEO in waiting", but a lot of this is from the book Inside Apple, a pretty unreliable source. (I'm sure any of the Apple top leadership could adequately perform as CEO, but there's no realistic scenario where Cook and/or the board would support the change.)
So, he's not going to be pushed out internally.
The only way I could see Tim Cook leaving on his own initiation would be if he suffered a medical or other disability. Similarly, Steve Jobs would have remained Apple's Chairman and CEO until he became medically incapacitated. I mean, what are you going to do which is better than running Apple?
So, he's not going to leave on his own.
Given that Apple is the world's highest market capitalization company, it's unlikely anyone will buy Apple. Even if they did, it would be unlikely the new owners would replace the leadership.
I'm going to assume this was just shameless page view pandering on Cringely's part. Plus, in the 1:1000 chance he's right (due to a bus, or due to mass psychosis at a board meeting), he'd be remembered as the guy who predicted it; otherwise, it will be forgotten like a bunch of other bad predictions he's made.
