World War Z (2013 movie): Do the Israelis really have a 10th man doctrine?

The devil’s advocate office ensures that AMAN’s intelligence assessments are creative and do not fall prey to group think. The office regularly criticizes products coming from the analysis and production divisions, and writes opinion papers that counter these departments’ assessments. The staff in the devil’s advocate office is made up of extremely experienced and talented officers who are known to have a creative, “outside the box” way of thinking. Perhaps as important, they are highly regarded by the analysts. As such, strong consideration is given to their conclusions and their memos  go directly to the office of the Director of Military Intelligence, as well as to all major decision makers. The devil’s advocate office also proactively combats group think and conventional wisdom by writing papers that examine the possibility of a radical and negative change occurring within the security environment. This is done even when the defense establishment does not think that such a development is likely, precisely to explore alternative assumptions and worst-case scenarios.

This concept has multiple applications. In the military it is to prepare for and be successful in the face of the unexpected. Let’s face it an enemy seldom attacks your strongest defense (well unless you are an obstinate Hitler at Kursk). A capable opponent with good intelligence and decision making can usually be counted on to do the unexpected (the von Moltke* doctrine: ‘No plan survives contact with the enemy’). So the best military training is a variation of the US Marines mantra: Improvise, adapt and overcome thus valuing flexibility, resourcefulness and decisiveness.

The danger is that charismatic leaders, successful officers often engender like minded thinking. And strong willed action oriented decisive leaders, do not tolerate dissent. Montgomery and Market Garden in WW2 comes to mind. So active intelligence operations need to encourage and reward those who think outside the box, suggest alternative analysis, and are not yes men.

And thus the transfer to business and industry. Disruptive technology will destroy businesses who are not agile enough to improvise, adapt and overcome. Need proof?

In 2004 Blockbuster had 8,000 stores and 60,000 employees. In 2010 it filed for bankruptcy. Can you spell Netflix, Redbox and video on demand?

In 2014 a NYC taxi medallions sold for 1.3 million, however just 3 years later one is listed for $250,000. Disruptive technology spelled: Uber, Lyft, or Sidecar?

Hindsight is always 20/20, the challenge is to make good decisions often on limited data when under pressure in real time. There is one truth in sports that is transferable to the military, business and industry: You play like your practice: Always require high levels of intensity, practice against the very best opponent possible, while under duress and challenging conditions invarialby produces capable athletes and soldiers. Easy example, in high school we had soccer coaches that made us practice against a defense that had an extra man. The best chess player can think the most moves ahead. JHS

*Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke

Updated link: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-con...